At the CodeMash conference this year many things stuck with me, and two have been bugging me enough to do something about them this last weekend.  One was the idea that programmers need to practice and refine their skills, which was probably best described in the ideas of “Code Katas” ala Dave Thomas in the Pragmatic Programmer.  The other was my recent concentration on all-things-Silverlight, specifically looking at the power of the platform and the emerging patters (e.g. MVVM).

So if I can find an hour or two to “practice my craft” without expecting this will ever result in production code - just for learning – what should I tackle?  It hit me - “Fractals!!!”.  It seems like every computer system and programming environment that I’ve gotten since the late 80s I have seen what I could do with some of the now-classic fractal algorithms. Inspiration for this also came from Corey Hanes great feature summary of another classic, the “Game of Life”.

This post isn’t intended to be a detailed primer on fractals, and specifically fractals resulting from an “iterated function system” or IFS, but here are the basics.  Many systems in nature exhibit features that look very similar to each other.  That is, leaves on a tree, mountains, crystal structures, cells, snowflakes, etc.  How can we try to simulate these patterns in a simple system to generate complex results.  The IFS routines in these systems are kind of like DNA in a cell.  Each element in the current generation of a system doesn’t know where it came from, but does know how to create the next generation in the system.  How about an example.

Start with a square. 

The shape you start with really doesn’t matter.  What you end up with is making a “collage” of whatever shape you start with, a square is simple and fills the space nicely (which will be important later).

Now we need to add some simple transformation rules.  We’ll do a “classic” Serpinski triangle or “gasket”.

A transformation rule generally has four parts: Scale, Rotation, Translation, and Probability.

In this case each of the three translations will scale 50% on both axes and have no rotation (0 degrees).

1. The first will not move at all (i.e. translate (0,0)).
2. The second will be a full width horizontally away (width, 0). 
3. The third will be a full width vertically away and a half-width horizontally away (width/2, width)

These then are the simple rules that this system will run by.  Each square in the system will know these rules and know how to apply them to themselves.  So when told to “iterate” each square should execute each rule by creating a clone of itself, and applying the rule to it.  After the iteration, the original square(s) should self-destruct as their short life is now over.

So what would happen with the next iteration?

And so on and so on.  What if we did this 7 times?

Starts looking far different that you might have expected.

So how might we start to tackle this in Silverlight?

Actually, this should be far easier to do in Silverlight than in previous platforms because graphics and transformations are built in to Silverlight “out-of-the-box”.

So “Iteration 0” will be easy (just a Rectangle).

 <Rectangle Fill="Red" Height="400" Width="400"/>

Now we could  create a rectangle with half the height, width, and translate it in XAML, but we want to be able to automate this, so perhaps there is a better way.

<Rectangle Fill="Blue" Height="400" Width="400">
 <Rectangle.RenderTransform>
     <TransformGroup>
         <ScaleTransform ScaleX=".5" ScaleY=".5"/>
         <RotateTransform Angle="0"/>
         <TranslateTransform X="0" Y="0"/>
     </TransformGroup>
 </Rectangle.RenderTransform>
</Rectangle>

We can take the original Rectangle and use the RenderTransform to handle all of the scaling, rotating, and translating of the Rectangle.  This works pretty well and is starting to get promising.  What would the other two “rules” look like?

<Rectangle Fill="LightBlue" Height="400" Width="400">
 <Rectangle.RenderTransform>
     <TransformGroup>
         <ScaleTransform ScaleX=".5" ScaleY=".5"/>
         <RotateTransform Angle="0"/>
         <TranslateTransform X="200" Y="0"/>
     </TransformGroup>
 </Rectangle.RenderTransform>
</Rectangle>

<Rectangle Fill="AliceBlue"  Height="400" Width="400">
 <Rectangle.RenderTransform>
     <TransformGroup>
         <ScaleTransform ScaleX=".5" ScaleY=".5"/>
         <RotateTransform Angle="0"/>
         <TranslateTransform X="100" Y="200" />
     </TransformGroup>
 </Rectangle.RenderTransform>
</Rectangle>

But now we have a problem.  This works well for Iteration 1, but not for subsequent Iterations.  We need to be able to do transformations on top of existing transformations (on top of other existing transformations, etc.).  Rectangle alone will not get us there.

What is a very simple XAML object that can contain another object? The ContentControl is just such a basic object.  Its basic job is to contain one other object (which itself could contain other objects), and it just so happens to also inherit from UIElement, which means it has RenderTransform as well.  What does this mean.

It means that we can do something like this …

<ContentControl>
 <ContentControl.RenderTransform>
     <TransformGroup>
         <ScaleTransform ScaleX=".5" ScaleY=".5"/>
         <RotateTransform Angle="0"/>
         <TranslateTransform X="0" Y="0"/>
     </TransformGroup>
 </ContentControl.RenderTransform>
 <Rectangle Fill="Green" Height="400" Width="400">
     <Rectangle.RenderTransform>
         <TransformGroup>
             <ScaleTransform ScaleX=".5" ScaleY=".5"/>
             <RotateTransform Angle="0"/>
             <TranslateTransform X="0" Y="0"/>
         </TransformGroup>
     </Rectangle.RenderTransform>
 </Rectangle>
</ContentControl>

… which, if you look at it, is the first rule in Iteration 2.  That is, apply the first rule to an object that already had the first rule already applied to it.  Now we’ll get a rectangle that is half the size of a half-sized rectangle (25%) and hasn’t rotated or moved from the origin at (0,0).

[End of Part 1]

Two more parts to this coming in the next few days:

• Part 1 – Fractals with TransformGroup and MessageBus
• Part 2 – Automating transformations by creating an IFS Content Control
• Part 3 – Wiring up the Iterations using a basic MessageBus implementation.
• Part 4 – But will it work for a fractal Fern?
• Part 5 – Lessons Learned (aka limitations of the MessageBus and recursion in Silverlight)

Ironically(?) It will end up taking 3-4 times as long to blog this as it actually took to code it, but there is learning in the blogging as well, so more coming soon.

One of the other fortunate things we were able to spend some time on last week was Kodu for the XBox 360.  Kodu is one of those things that is difficult to describe in words or even screen shots, and really needs to be experienced to understand.  In a nutshell it is a programming environment and visual programming language that lets kids create fully functional games using just the XBox 360 controller.

So how complex or cool could these games really get with such a significant limitation?

In the end all three kids want to use Kodu more than play any other games or videos at the moment.  And for them to use up their limited computer/game time on a programming environment is quite amazing.

The game works by adding programming commands using the XBox controller.  They are set up in a “when-do” type format (i.e. and “if-then” or “condition-action”).  So, for example, when-kodu-sees-apple do-move-towards-it or when-kodu-bumps-apple do-eat-it.  Sounds strange, but ends up being really powerful when you get into it.  Not only can the robots/actors in the environment have programs, but all the objects (stars, coins, castles, apples, balls, trees, etc.) have their own programs which can be cloned to make an army of autonomous elements.

The kids have created a few race, shoot-em-up, and Mario-style, games – be glad to share if anyone else gets going online.  Check it out and let me know if you get going.

I applied on Microsoft Connect to try to get our Bots on the Rock robotics club into the beta for using the PC version – I’ll let you know if that works out.

Check out the Kodu Forums online for more information and community around this cool new environment.

Kidbook vs. Netbook

I wrote almost a year ago of how I’ve been looking for a netbook that would meet some basic requirements for use by kids for their daily work.  There have been a lot of netbook models which are basically all the same specs, but none have really stood out as something that was designed and intended for kids, especially younger kids, to use on a daily basis.  Enter the Dell Latitude 2100 “kidbook”.  I’m calling it a kidbook because it adds some important features.

The 2100 is designed from the ground up for daily use in schools – it is not generally intended to be a consumer netbook.  This means some important things.  First, it amazingly comes with no promo/demo/annoyware installed.  While this isn’t really a feature, it saves perhaps an hour or more of uninstalling to get up and running.

The unit feels solid, has a rubberized shell, and is somewhat ruggedized – perhaps not to warehouse/government standards, but it definitely feels sturdy.  It immediately makes me think that this is what a “Little Tikes” or “Rubbermaid” laptop would look and act like. Also, the bottom of the unit has no access points for memory or drives, etc.  In fact if you even remove the four screws on the access panel it will not come off – there are three more screw under the keyboard (see below) that need to be removed to access the hardware. This adds a nice level of security from interested eyes, but adds some complexity of adding memory, etc.  Interestingly this also means that desktop spills could avoid damage as there are no access holes or vents on the bottom surface.  The 6-cell battery option raises up the base even more for additional clearance.

The 2100 is a barebones and utility machine.  It is not a tablet (though we did get the touch screen, see below), there is no thumb scanner, or firewire ports (3 USB).  The keyboard is solid and nearly full sized, but there are no multimedia keys other than volume/mute controls.  Did I mention there is no CD/DVD drive – typical for a netbook, but still something to get used to from desktops and laptops.

Finally the 2100 is very budget conscious – starting under $400, about $450 with the additional memory, touch screen, and webcam on these units.  I remember in 1991 when I was teaching computers and we got some Apple PowerBook 100s to pilot with some teachers and students.  These were $2,500 each in 1991 money.  Even the Newton-PDA inspired eMate 300 device was $799 in 1997 and didn’t even run “real” software.  The netbooks are finally a device that has enough power at a reasonable price for 1:1 student use.

Screen

Let’s get right to my biggest concern about the units the screen resolution - 1024 x 574?  Huh?  Computer monitors have traditionally been in a 4:3 ratio (e.g. 640x480, 800x600) and more recently 16:9 (1280x720) but netbooks have commonly chosen WSVGA resolution of 1024x600.  This is trouble enough as it doesn’t match any typical resolutions of monitors, but by the 2100 dropping a mysterious 26 pixels off of this causes additional problems.

Many web sites are expecting at least 700 pixel vertical resolution, so you end up having to scroll down to get to the active parts of many web sites.  But this is true of all netbooks and web sites are adapting to the netbook trend.

However, software installers can check minimum resolution before installing or setting themselves up.  Some software will see a vertical resolution of under 600 and set up for 640x480 which makes an awkward little box in the middle of the relatively big screen.  Others will not install without at least 800x600 resolution.  To get around this you can temporarily change your screen resolution to 1024x768.  This means you end up scrolling the screen up and down to see the full screen by moving the mouse up and down.  This will allow the software to install.  Then you can change the resolution back and the software will typically run (may clip the bottom a little).

But, 1024x576 is not one of the choices in the typical “Display Properties” dialog box – so how do you switch back.  It turns out it is not that straightforward, but here is the scoop.

In “Display Properties” Settings, choose the Advanced Button.  One of the Tabs will now be called “Intel Graphics Media Accelerator Driver for Mobile”.  Here there are two things: 1) the button that takes you to the actual screen you need, and 2) a “Show Tray Icon” checkbox that will enable access to this panel directly from the System Tray.  If you find yourself needing to switch resolutions to support certain software, having easy access to his panel will be helpful.

On this screen, finally, you can find the “native” resolution of the 2100 (1024x576).

An additional tip, the new Chrome web browser from Google has a unique functionality (that I hope gets picked up by IE, Firefox, etc.) that allows you to find a page on the web and then “Create Application Shortcuts”. This does two important things: 1) Drops an icon on the desktop, start menu, quick-launch bar, etc. for that web site (and picks up the favicon as an icon for the shortcut) and 2) removes all the UI chrome at the top (i.e. no address bar, tabs, menus, just the window title).  This enables kids to get to pre-selected sites very quickly and maximizes the vertical “real estate” on the screen for maximum use.

Touch Screen

I opted for the touch screen because I am developing some software that uses it, but I was surprised at how the kids started using this feature right away in many of the applications.  The kids must not have the hang-ups I have about touching a screen to get it to do things because they use it all the time.  In fact in some software like Rosetta Stone (foreign language – nice) it is much more instinctive and natural to use the touch screen than maneuver with the touchpad.  Not much more to say about this yet – I am eager to get some software going that will use it even more.

CPU

The 2100 uses the common combination of the Intel Atom N2170 CPU and Intel 950 GMA (graphics media accelerator).  This combination does a very respectable job of running most software very well.

The notable exception is software that requires significant graphics memory and 3D acceleration.  Two failures in this regard were Age of Empires III and Civilization IV.  A general rule, if you considered buying a new video card to run a game or program, then it will probably have issues on a netbook

The 2100 plays video well (avi, mov, mp4, and even DVDs, see below), but don't expect to record or edit videos on the machine itself.  The performance was very respectable with photos (even large ones) consider the higher-end (2Gb) of memory if editing and manipulating images will be important..

Integrated Camera / Microphone

We also opted for the integrated webcam and digital microphone.  I was very pleased when installing Skype (video conferencing) at how well it worked with the hardware with the standard install.  The device comes with software for basic webcam recording and still picture capture.

The one trick we found was actually enabling the integrated digital microphone in applications like Skype and Audacity (audio/podcasting).  There is only one microphone driver/input in the software but there is an external jack for microphones and an internal digital microphone.  I only found one place to switch between the two.  If you open the control panels there will be one called the “Realtek HD Sound Effect Manager”.

Opening this up you will find a tab called “Mixer”.  Once selected you will have the option to select the radio button for either the external or integrated/digital mic.

Memory

There are really four configurations of memory in the 2100: 512Mb, 1Gb, 1.5Gb, and 2Gb.  The interesting thing is that the initial memory configuration is very important.  The first 512Mb or 1Gb of memory is actually permanent on the motherboard of the laptop – that is, it can’t be removed or upgraded.  There is one slot for memory that can take an additional 1Gb of memory.  So starting with 1Gb maximizes your memory potential.  This is how I ordered the units because additional memory was $29 for 2 1Gb DIMMs online (and I was over budget because of the touch screen and webcam already).

Adding the second sticks of memory turns out to be more involved than any laptop I have ever used or owned, and this is saying a lot.  It turns out that you first need to remove the keyboard (2 screws) to get to the internal screws attaching the bottom cover (3 screws) and then you need to remove the bottom access cover (4 screws).  One note here is to be careful with the keyboard cable clip.

This clip opens upwards (see above) and stays attached – or should stay attached.  One one of the units I had this clip (the white part) completely detach which lead to 20 minutes or so of anxiety before my wife (with better eyes and smaller fingers) got the clip to click back on (thanks Laura). 

The second 2100 memory upgrade went fine with the keyboard clip but the memory did not “seat” correctly so I had to re-remove the 9 screws, keyboard, panel, etc. and do it all over again – good experience, but, again, not as “friendly” as many other laptops.  Perhaps having Dell install the 1Gb when building the machine is worth saving $10 on memory.

On the plus side, this really keeps curious kids from getting into the device (it’d be nice if you could get a replacement set of outer screws that were Torx or at least not Phillips-head screws to slow them down even more.  On the down side this makes a typically easy memory upgrade a much more involved task.

Operating System

Ubuntu Linux, Windows XP SP3, or Windows 7 – not considering Vista as a practical option right now.

This is actually a pretty easy decision for us. Linux won't run most of the educational software (out of emulation). Likewise Windows 7 won't run much of the software and “Virtual XP” mode is not supported on Atom processors.

Macintosh OSX not available on non-Apple equipment - will Apple release a netbook / kidbook?

So Windows XP SP3 is probably the most stable and understood Windows operating system in use (since Windows 98SE) and runs the important software we use.  Microsoft has stated that the XP downgrade option will be available for 18 months after the release of Windows 7, after that a CPU and memory upgrade will probably be necessary to achieve similar results.

Networking

Unsurprisingly the 2100 supports Wi-Fi and wired connections (no 3G or WiMax, but not needed).  But surprisingly it supports 802.11n high-speed Wi-Fi and 1000 Gigabit Ethernet wired connections which are not common on typical netbooks.  They also have the ability to “wake on LAN” which enables solutions like the upcoming “Managed Mobile Computing Station”.

This unit enables 24 of the 2100s to be docked for charging, storage/security, and remote updates (even includes it’s own wireless router so you can plug in one Ethernet cable and wirelessly power a room).  But at close to $4,000 this kind of kills the whole “on budget” theme for a classroom – hmm, 10 more 2100s or a fancy cart.

Bluetooth 2.1 is available as an added option (we didn’t opt-in).  This was tempting for use with the LEGO Mindstorms NXT robotics kits, or wireless mouse, but I can imagine the pairing and management of a classroom full of Bluetooth devices could get challenging.

One other thing is the somewhat hyped feature of the Network Activity Light.

This is included on the cover of the netbook and shows if any network interface is being used (i.e. light on if activity, light off if no activity).  I’ll stop short of calling this a “gimmick” but in our experience the light is always on because the network is always on.  If there were an easier way for kids to turn the network on and off, or some software uses this for other purposes (a promised API from Dell for educational software programmers may be coming soon), then this may have a larger use and impact.

Battery

Dell offers a 3-cell and 6-cell battery for the 2100.  The 6-cell adds a little bit of height but is barely noticeable.  One unique feature is that there is a clear plastic “window” on the battery where you can slide in a strip of paper with a particular student’s name (or other identifier) on the unit.  This gives a clear way to identify different machines in what may be a crowded classroom situation.

Keyboard

The keyboard is nearly full-sized and I had no time with my huge hands typing e-mail and other tests.  Another unique option here is an antimicrobial protected keyboard option. In a shared environment could be a real plus with the flu and colds going around.  For 1:1 use this may not be as much of a benefit (did not opt for this either).

CD-DVD Options / Issues

Sometimes there is no getting away from using external media.  Ironically all the backup and recovery software for the 2100 comes on CD, which you can’t ever access from the 2100 directly.  Also, some curriculums include physical DVDs (e.g. One Year Adventure Novel) and others have a lot of media that needs to be accessed from the disc (e.g. Rosetta Stone language software).  In these cases you have two options.

The first is an external CD/DVD drive.  The best of these will require no external power and can be powered directly from the USB port.  Dell has an option for this when building the machines for $90 which includes PowerDVD (playing DVDs) and Roxio Creator software (burning discs).  I was watching for deals and found a Samsung drive on sale at NewEgg for $49 which included Nero 8 (playing and burning).  This has worked well for installing software, running CDs, and playing DVDs – I was impressed that the laptop played the DVDs so well with the limited power.  I am sure when you are running off of battery power that this would significantly reduce battery run time.

The other option is to use disc images on the hard drive.  Utilities such as PowerISO will allow you to create an image of most CDs/DVDs and store them on the hard drive, and later mount these images as virtual disks.  This essentially mirrors the content of the CD/DVD to the hard drive.  This image can then be run using just the hard drive.  This raises all kinds of copyright issues and licensing headaches.  This is a topic for another post, but make sure your licensing allows for this type of use and that you are covered for the number of simultaneous installs and users that you have. Some discs have copy protection on them and will not work with this method of mounting – this clearly shows the intent of the publisher – contact them directly as I am sure this will be a common issue going forward.

Ideally software will move away from distribution by disc, and even installing locally on the netbook at all (more below on this).  But until then there are still options for curriculum that is distributed and/or must run with a disc.

Pros

Marketing material is one thing, but a well designed “kidbook” is worth lauding.  If I haven’t mentioned it before I am in no way associated with Dell and don’t get any compensation from them.  That being said, I really do like the 2100s.  They are solid and do what they claim to do, and don’t do what they don’t claim to do.  The price point is quite reasonable considering the power and functionality provided.  Unique options like the touch screen, anti-swine flu keyboard, rubberized and secured exterior, etc. are very nice to see.  The touch screen and web cam enable more “natural user interface” options that enable use of the 2100 beyond the keyboard and mouse/touchpad.

Cons

The biggest “con” is the screen resolution (1024x576).  I would predict that this gets a remedy fairly quickly because of the non-trivial impact that it can and will have on software installs and execution.  Unfortunately early adopters will be somewhat left behind by this – but that is one of the risks of being early to any technology.

Recommendations

When I was young and foolish I leased a 1995 Dodge Cirrus based on a popular consumer's magazine "Car of the Year" award (because I had finished my Masters degree, and had a full time school administrator's job, and "deserved" a new car).  I only mention this because it was the worst car I have ever owned, recalled twice, in the shop for mechanical failures 5 times, and all in the 24 months of the lease.  This is/was the last new car I ever bought and I learned an expensive lesson about cost and value (and how leasing is 95% of the time a terrible option).  I also learned not to give or trust recommendations without a significant amount of hands-on time for new models.  Interestingly the said consumer magazine has also adopted a similar policy for new models.

And you probably realize where this is going - I am going to hold off on recommendations concerning the Dell 2100 until we've spent some real-world time using it.  Unfortunately models change so fast with computers that waiting a year to make a recommendation will probably find the Dell 2115 in production with the first or second round of enhancements.  But I am in no way sending them back, and am cautiously optimistic that these will really be helpful going forward. I am also realistic that there will be improvements (1024x576) and tweaks and being on the cutting edge is exciting but sometimes you get a little cut up in the process.

Overall I’d give the 2100 “4 of 5 stars” or a solid B+, which means there is a little room for improvement but it is a solid offering and unique today in the marketplace.

Products Installed / Mentioned Here

• Rosetta Stone (Language Learning) http://www.rosettastone.com/
• Skype (Audio/Video Calls/Conference) http://www.skype.com/
• Lego Mindstorms NXT (Robotics) http://mindstorms.lego.com/eng/Egypt_dest/Default.aspx AND http://www.legoeducation.com
• Teaching Textbooks (Math, 4th-Pre-Calc) http://www.teachingtextbooks.com/
• PowerISO (create/mount disc images) http://www.poweriso.com/
• One Year Adventure Novel (Writing 8th+) http://www.oneyearnovel.com/
• Wikipedia http://www.wikipedia.org
• Google Chrome (web browser) http://www.google.com/chrome 

Implications

This is already 2 or 3 times the size of a good blog post, but I plan to add another post at some point about the implications of netbooks in the marketplace.  Some technology analysts predict that in 5 years 50% of internet connected computers will be netbooks. Software and services targeting (or at least supporting) netbooks will be an important market.  Software distributed via the network, or better yet delivered in real-time over the network, will be in demand.  Also, software that can adapt to the screen size of the user (from 10” netbook to 30” desktop monitor) will be popular to enable use and features based on the power and size of the particular install.  Some examples of recent posts on products of this type are below.  I’ll have to also post some samples of what we are doing with Silverlight and dock panels and view boxes to show some of the latest technology to help enable functionality in installations on different screen resolutions.

http://eeepc.net/netbook-office-suite-launched-by-corel/

http://eeepc.net/thinkfree-office-suite-available-for-purchase/

UPDATE: Had to fix the URL "slug" it was messing things up (never include a quote in a slug).

I had the opportunity to attend Keith Brophy's 10th Annual "Tech Trends" Wednesday last night.  It is great to have regular events like this to bring people together and stimulate conversation and ideas - which is exactly what it did.  Talks like this are inspirational and thought-provoking, but are really meant to start the conversation, not be the entire conversation.  So this is my brief addition to what Kieth started last night.

Before, I thought of creating a Lingo Bingo card for the talk as has been a fun trend (http://bingo.keynote.se/ ).  So I scanned headlines for a large group of tech Blogs for common themes.  You need 24 items for a complete Bingo card (middle is Free) so this is what I came up with:

Nanobots, Netbook/OLPC, WiFi/3G/WiMAX, Wii, RFID, ePaper, Twitter/Facebook, Mobile/iPhone/Android, Robots, Cloud/Grid/Mesh Computing, Vision/Camera, Electric Cars / Car Tech, "Hybrid", Home Servers, Google/Chrome, Hulu, Surface / Multi-touch, XBox Live, SSD, Netflix, 3D Entertainment, Electronic Marketplace, Green, Security/Privacy, GPS, SaS/SOA, Voice

 If you were at the event you know what was discussed, if not check out http://www.mlive.com/business/west-michigan/index.ssf/2009/02/cyborgs_robotic_pets_on_the_ho.html for the high-level overview and the predictions.

Keith's predictions that seem to have missed the mainstream ideas were the "New Energy Source" and the "Role of the Elderly".  The items from the "lingo list" that I was surprised missed the top 10 were anything Car/Automotive related, Home Servers, Green Tech, and 3D Entertainment.

Two main themes or ideas have stuck with me that I think are actionable and could lead to new products or even businesses.  They do not come out of any one of the trends but are rather a result of three or more all spun together.

The first is the market that will be created when a majority of peoples' personal computers are netbooks.  Software running on netbooks is of a different character than many traditional mainline applications.  First, it is not necessarily locally installed.  netbooks have very limited local storage, less memory and potentially a bit smaller screen than a desktop or full laptop computer. Also, there is not typically a CD/DVD drive to load software onto the device - software is loaded and run from the network/Internet.  That is, the software comes out of the Cloud, runs on the computer, and can then "go away".  Even data for the application can be stored in the Cloud.  In theory, I could use one netbook one day and run all of my applications off of it.  The next day I could run off of a completely different netbook (or computer or laptop) and the software and files would come out of the Cloud for me to use and run seamlessly.

So first, what will not run in this environment?  First, any big "bloatware" like Office 2007 where you need a big disk and a lot of memory just to write a Word document.  Plus a retail version is 100s of dollars and out of the reach of most people.  Cutting edge 3D games will not have the local power and speed to run in this environment.  Video-authoring and editing software will have issues with local storage and resources.  Anything that runs off of a CD/DVD, like most current Educational software.

What will be useful and popular on netbooks? First, web applications.  Google has a huge lead on this area and will benefit greatly from that.  From e-mail, to documents, to calendars, to news readers, Google has applications that will work today on netbooks.  Beyond this they have a way to make money from the applications through advertising and eCommerce solutions.

Beyond web applications is a layer of Rich Internet Applications (RIAs) which have traditionally run on Adobe Flash and are also now arriving via Adobe AIR for out-of-browser applications and via Silverlight for rich media and line-of-business applications.  A market for small and targeted applications is already here.  Stores like Apples iTunes App store or the new Dell Downloads service can enable authors of software to have a marketplace for their new portable applications.  These applications come right from the store, run on the device, and can "go away" just as quickly when their usefulness is done.  The ability for a company to quickly develop, test, and distribute small targeted applications will become a very valuable skill set.

Combining the netbook technologies with the reviving Educational Technology craze could open an even bigger market with built-in funding through economic stimulus funds and local taxation.  Imagine a "ruggedized" version of a netbook with built-in GPS tracking (don't want to have these get lost or "walk away").  A $300 ruggedized netbook could see the one-child per computer (OLPC) vision of many educationalists become a reality.  Some textbook providers will (and are) provide a digital equivalent of their current offerings.  But a market for niche software that extends and broadens the possible offerings for different students will be huge.  Imagine a modern physics lesson and simulator or Spanish language tutor or even a MindMapping solution.  Even if all an author got was $.99 per student, this could amount to millions of dollars very quickly (and would still be cheaper than textbooks cost now).

Once we have an education-optimized netbook it doesn't take long to consider a business-optimized or health-care optimized netbook/tablet.  These devices will have the same benefits and restrictions. This is all to say that people who start thinking now about developing solutions for the netbook platform will be in very good shape to respond to the exploding need.

Another theme that came out of the Tech Trends talk is the skills that will be needed in the near future and the impact robots/recorders will have on these skills.  But that is another post entirely.

For Valentine's Day this year, Laura wanted to have a lunchdate at someplace new.  After a littlesearching she found a place in East Grand Rapids called Marie Catrib's  - http://www.mariecatribs.com/. I checked it out online and figured out how to get there and we were off.

I can't begin to tell you how much we were impressed by theplace (didn't bring a camera - should have). First thing that really struck me was the "local" flavor ofthe place.  Not only is it locally ownedand operated (like to promote the local economy) but most of their ingredientscome from local farms within a "scooter trip" from therestaurant.  This means they use localfarms (and greenhouses in the winter) to get veggies, meat and cheeses.  They even name the farms and offer summertours so you can buy food for home from local places too.  The building itself was eco-friendly - likethe downtown YMCA and new Art Museum it is a LEED-certified building whichincludes a "live roof", passive solar, zero-rain-water shed,etc.  They have a wide variety of foodand offer a lot of vegetarian and even vegan options, but also have home-madesausage (which I had in my Baker's Omelet).

There were probably 4-5 groups ahead of us when we gotthere, so the wait was about 20-25 minutes. During this time they had a cool coffee bar (I had organic vanilla hazelnut)and they came by three times with cinnamon rolls and seasoned pita chips.  During the wait we looked over the Saturday menu(http://www.mariecatribs.com/images/uploads/891Brunch0508.pdf)and the amazing amount of take-home food they had ready-to-go (we took home somerice, hummus, and a monster cookie - all vegan, all good).

We are already planning a return visit - this time with thechildren (looked quite kid-friendly and good options for them).  I had never heard of the place before Lauramentioned it, but can't figure out how we missed it.

I wanted to write a 2008 post for a couple of reasons: 1) for “historical” reasons to look back on later, and 2) to let new (and old) people who actually read this blog know a little bit more about me.  So without further ado….

2008 Milestones

• Space Shuttle Launch at Kennedy Space Center – Saw a live launch of something that actually left Earth.  It’s been a life-long dream and was well worth it.
• Two new puppies – Kirby and Bella, our little 2-3lb Yorkie-poos.  Bella is sitting at my feet even while writing this.  Very loyal, but tiny.
• Laura’s ankle-fusion surgery – after years of pain from bone-on-bone rubbing in her feet and ankle, we decided to have the surgery this summer.  Months of no weight-bearing and still in recovery, but should lead to many more options for us this next summer.

Favorite New Gadget - Remote Car Starter

• Probably the least “hi-tech” of any new technology, but this winter it has really been awesome.   A “must-have” gadget, to me, is one you really didn’t know much about, then you got it, used it, and now can’t figure out what you would do without it.  This definitely fits here.
• Runner Up - iPod Touch – also a birthday present, and probably the gadget with the most potential.  I’m going to learn a bit about how to program software for the iPhone and Touch next week, and really like the device (far beyond music and videos).
• Runner Up - Craftsman Snowblower – an early Christmas present saved us from 50+ inches of snow in December, and made it easy enough to help others on our street and help move cars that were stuck in the snow.
• Runner Up - Wii / Wii-Fit – Really an amazing achievement from both a technical and programming standpoint – you really have to see it or try it to understand.
• Runner Up - HP Tablet PC – small (12”) portable machine that’s been with me to work, robotics, quizzing, church and really anywhere I’ve needed something.  Looking at the possibility of getting “netbooks” for the kids this year.

Favorite New Technology - Silverlight 2.0

• I have to pick Silverlight because I’ve been programming in it non-stop for the last 7-8 months.  In short, Silverlight is an environment for programming really interactive applications that can be contained in web pages (much like Flash or Java Applets).  The advantages of Silverlight are technical and would require another post, but I really believe that it will make a big impact on how web and mobile applications are written going forward.
• Runner Up - ASP.NET MVC – better way to write web applications.
• Runner Up – Twitter/Facebook – got to meet and interact with several hundred new and long-time friends on an informal basis and keep track of all that is going on with them.  Great way to keep track of people so you can really catch up quickly when you see each other face-to-face.
• Runner Up – iPhone apps and web apps – I really want to be able to program for people that are “not at their computer” and iPhone and Touch applications may be a very important way of doing so.

Best Movie - WALL-E

• So I don’t get out much to watch movies – five or less all year (see more on DVD, but not that many more).  I really liked WALL-E for a number of reasons.  A robot “star” (love robot stuff), amazingly limited dialog (movie “says” so much just through “body language”, context and situations.  And the movie actually had some pretty “deep” things to say about relationships, personal responsibility, consumerism, and appropriate use of technology.

Best New Activity - Family Swim Night at the YMCA

• We’ve been going swimming as a family on Friday nights and Sunday afternoon since Laura started her rehab after surgery.  This has been great as a family activity and for getting some good activity during the winter months.  The YMCA had a promotion where we could start up again at no charge (we’d been members a while ago), so it was a deal we couldn’t pass up.
• Runner Up - Bots on the Rock -  We wanted to get an informal group going who liked creating, inventing, programming and playing with LEGO robots, so we started a group with some friends to do just that.  We’ve been going for a year now and have even more plans going forward.  Fun and learning all in one.

Most Interesting Book - The Shack

• Unfortunately I read for pleasure lately even less that I see movies, but I did squeeze in a couple books this year (and have a booklist already started for 2009 to remedy this issue). The Shack was a book that I missed in the “first pass” and heard a lot of people talking about at church, work and on Twitter/Facebook. And when I say people talking is was really a lot more like debating or dialoguing about the book and everyone seemed to have an opinion or idea about it.  So much so that folks wanted to get together and discuss it.  So I picked it up and read it and had a similar response.  In short it is a fictional account of a man who has had some significant loss and tragedy in his life, who through a series of events has an experience, dream, vision, or something where he ends up having a dialog with characters who represent God, Jesus and the Holy Spirit.  Sound strange?  It is.  Worth reading and discussing? It was.
• Runner Up - The Appeal – I do like John Grisham, and my mom and grandma both recommended reading it.  It is another book that evokes an emotional response – mostly anger that this is really probably the way things happen in “real life”.
• Sad note on the book front, we lost Michael Crichton this year – one of my favorite authors growing up.  I’ve read his books like: Andromeda Strain, The Great Train Robbery, Congo, Sphere, Jurassic Park, Disclosure, State of Fear and at least 5 more less popular titles.  He had a great imagination and perspective on technology and issues surrounding technology, and great suspense and action.  He will be missed.
  

Biggest Bummer - Michigan Economy

• The down economy seems to have impacted every part of our lives.  From friends losing their jobs, to houses losing value and not selling, to retirement plans dissolving, travel plans changing, and just a general gloomy feeling.  We’ve all adapted and changed and perhaps grown closer because of it.  But a positive change in 2009 would be very helpful.
• Runner Up - Seeming demise of the Grand Rapids / West Michigan User Group – This is related to the economy as well as many programming jobs have gone away, and many companies don’t have discretionary money to donate to such causes.  So individuals stop attending and can’t support the group and companies stop supporting the group.  Even the leadership of the group is impacted.  Hopefully the new year and new jobs will encourage people to get interested and involved again.  I’ve seen these things go in cycles and soon the should be a void that the group can fill again.
• Runner Up - Car died – enough said.
• Runner Up - Detroit Lions – too much has already been said.

I am sure I missed something major or noteworthy in 2008 that failed my mental recall attempt this morning, so I’ll update this post as needed.  E-mail me (bruce@abernethy.com) if you think of something.  Blog comments are “unworking” – yes a blog software update is high on the list for 2009.

 I’ve been hoping and watching for a great portable computer that would be ideal for students (and others) for many years – at least since we tested some PowerBook 100s with teachers in 1991 (only to have some returned to us as almost “unusable” – imagine giving back technology to someone, it was a pretty “underwhelming”).  The PowerBook 170 was much better but cost $5,000 each (in 1991 money) and only lasted a year in production as well.

Come forward 16 years and there is the ambitious “One Laptop per Child” vision of Nicholas Negroponte that brings some of the best minds together to figure out how to build a cheap and rugged laptop to enable students world-wide to gain access to a wealth of information and functionality.  But this vision misses on several important points, but creates a wonderful market for smaller form factor and lesser functionality devices for students and really anybody that is mobile and wants to stay connected and productive.

In 2009 I would really like to buy 3 Netbooks (one for each of my children) to use daily as part of their educational (and other) pursuits.  This is a non-trivial purchase so I am considering it very carefully.  The market for Netbooks is coming together quickly, though there is even a new challenge this week over whether the term “netbook” is trademarked.  But the issue for this post is a recap of what I would really like to see in a Netbook, and why.

The first few things would be related to the “Net” part of “Netbook”

• The device should be able to operate when not connected to the Internet, but should achieve full potential and functionality when connected to a network.  There should be options for achieving this connectivity including network cable, Wi-Fi, and mobile networks (3G, EDGE, WiMAX, etc.).  For the later, the ability to integrate the connectivity within the main case is ideal (don’t want a “dongle” for each type of connectivity).
• Bluetooth – not required.  If it is “on the chip” with the other wireless features, then go for it.  But if it adds even $20 to the cost (and/or measurably reduces battery life) then leave it out.
• Needs to run OS-independent software from “the cloud”.  I don’t care if the Netbook itself runs XP, OSX, Vista, Ubuntu, Android, etc. as its base OS, as long as there is a platform that software can be developed on to run across devices.  This could be Flash/Flex, Silverlight, JavaFX, AIR, etc.  The ability to develop, market, and sell/distribute apps to the different Netbooks is really important.
• An optical drive should not be required, but could be connected as an external USB/eSATA device.  Installing “full-blown” applications from a CD/DVD should be possible, but limited.  Limiting local storage should be a goal to enable apps running from the “cloud” and saving data back to the network as well.
• Basic CPU – no quad-core x64 3D gaming rig here.  A nice low-power CPU, optimized for wireless applications would be nice.  Atom processors are the rage right now but VIA and AMD have processors that would work too.

The next few things would be related to the “Book” part of “Netbook”

• First, it should be roughly the size of a book – could be a hardcover, paperback or in between.  This puts it somewhere between an iPhone and a traditional laptop computer.  A target would be 8-10” screen size.  It seems that some are now at the WSVGA screen size (1024x600), better than SVGA (800x600) but full XGA would be nicer (1024x768) (see cost discussion later).
• It should provide many of the same functions of a book (reading, reference, easy access to information).
• It should be “dockable” to use a larger display (keyboard, mouse, etc.) if available at a desk or lab.
• Fairly ruggedized and should not weigh very much (think carry in backpacks) – 2 pounds would be ideal.  This device will share backpack space with other books, be banged around a bit, and will inevitably be dropped or otherwise abused. Netbooks that are engineered well in this area (e.g. rubber, plastics, where appropriate, SSD drives instead of spinning media, etc.) will have a definite upper-hand.

Finally things that really have nothing to do with “Net” or “Book” but are things I think of being part of this device.

• Webcam and microphone input – I really think that multi-media and multi-modal input for so many things is really important that I hesitate to leave this for just those that add external devices.
• Basic speakers – nothing special.  Headphone jack.
• Touch/Tablet screen – torn on this one.  There is a lot going on with multi-touch on the iPhone and Windows 7, but nothing really “proven” yet.  I think the expense that this would add would not be worth the money
• Battery life – probably the biggest hurdle Netbooks face.  Ideally it would last a full work/school day, say 6 hours of use.  Ideally the device could “sleep/hibernate” easily and have it easy to swap in a fully charged battery.  Kind of like batteries for cordless drills and other tools – yes the Netbook is a tool.
• Now that we are talking money.  The device should be $400 +/-$100.  Under $300 would probably be made so cheaply that it would violate the “ruggedness” need or some of the features.  More than $500 and it is getting too expensive.  I know this is a tight margin for prices.

I’ll update this post if/when I decide to commit on which ones to buy.  I’d appreciate any feedback or ideas that others have in this area as well.

Update 1: Added some details, fixed some weird formatting

If you ask most of the world about Steve Job’s keynote this week, they will basically tell you that it was the iPhone 3G announcement (new cheaper, faster, stronger, iPhone for the world) – which is true, but it was more than that.  This was at the WWDC (world-wide developers conference) for Apple Computer. 

iPhone as a Primary Platform

There were 5200 (sold out) developers at the WWDC for 147 different sessions (85 on Mac, 62 on iPhone). 62 on iPhone – 42% of the developer sessions were on the iPhone and new iPhone SDK 2.0.  You see, Apple doesn’t sell that many Macs, as their competitors will tell you.  Macs are only 5-10% of the total number of personal computers out there.  When Apple came out with the iPod and iTunes, they found a market they could dominate.  One of the other slides in this part of the keynote said there were “Three parts to Apple now Mac, Music, and iPhone”.  Apple makes as much, or more, on their iPods and Music as they do their Macintosh computers. 

Now they are looking to dominate the cell phone market as well – specifically the Internet-enabled “smart-phone” market.  And much of the rest of the keynote showed how seriously they are taking this market.  There has been talk of this trend away from personal computers and toward “intra-personal communicators”.  People don’t want to be “tethered” to a desktop PC, but mobile with their laptops and cell phones.

Mobile devices are a first-class development platform for 2008+

Partnership and Perception

So what does Apple need to dominate the phone business that they don’t already have? (1) the Enterprise user (i.e. the Blackberry crowd), (2) the College / GenX crowd, and (3) the Techy crowd (i.e. the ones who timed every download on the “old” EDGE network), (4) Loyal Mac/iPhone fans, (5) Education users (very loyal to Apple) and (6) everyone else.

When announcing all their new features, Apple did some important things.  For the Enterprise announcements they teamed up with top Fortune 500 companies to add credibility.  They dropped key technology names like Exchange and Cisco to gain points with the corporate IT crowd. SEGA was first off with a motion-sensitive Super Monkey Ball application to appeal to fun/gamers with an app done in “2 weeks” that beats all/most N-Gage games 3 or more years into development.  Then for “everyone else” there is eBay, TypePad, AP, MLB.com, etc.  For the Techys/Mac folks there are demos of “Cow Music” and games from Pangea Software.  For Education there are Medical content/training demonstrations.

In short it shows that Apple understands the market and their customers and has something to say to all of them.

Microsoft is doing a similar thing with Silverlight and the Olympics, MLB, NetFlix, and others.

It doesn’t matter how cool your technology is, if key players are not developing for it, then users won’t have any reason to move to it.

Leveraging the “2.0” Trend

Everything “cool” right now is “2.0” – whether it is Web 2.0, Learning 2.0, etc.  Now there is the iPhone SDK 2.0.  Most developers who wanted apps on the iPhone had to create Safari/Web based apps that fit well on the iPhone browser (and this will continue). But now what is touted as an “entirely new platform” enables full APIs (down to 3D graphics, and “presence”) for developing applications.

“2.0” isn’t coming, it is here – BTW, stop calling everything “2.0”

Internationalization

It has been largely possible to develop good web sites, and have them be very successful, using only American English.  Some/few sites have worked to become multi-lingual in other primary languages. Apple made it clear that the iPhone will have support world-wide with versions and cell phone carriers in 70 different countries. 

Developers need to think about multi-language support from the very beginning of applications.

Very limited Internet access (and even more limited bandwidth) than expected, but a few ideas/issues from the road (before they leave my short-term memory).

Here are two ideas for services that seem inevitable after a few experiences on vacation.

1) Government dictated (or business-standard) regulation to limit the personal information stored as consumer information - especially related to customer purchases.  It will probably have opt-in/opt-out capability.  Think of it as a HIPAA for retail business.  The motivation for this is the ever-increasing amount of fraud with identity and credit information. 

Motivation/inspiration for this?  Several things, but it really hit me when the gas pump I put my credit card into this morning asked me for my zip code (and potentially other information).  First the expiration date had to match the number on the card (and the date wasn't supposed to be stored).  Next the name had to match the card.  Then, for shipped items, the address on the card had to match the address being shipped to.  Then there was the "security code" on the back of the card (which, again, wasn't supposed to be stored).  Now to get $60 in gas, the gas station has my name (from the card), the card number, expiration date, and now my zip code (which is a protected field under HIPAA in certain circumstances, as are the rest).  In the short term, the added zip code requirement will catch some stolen cards, but then they will need something else.

The main issue here is that some random Shell station in mid-Florida now has just about all the information they need to not only use my credit card, but order a new card, or get a loan in my name.  This shouldn't be necessary, and is getting out of control.  Something will be needed soon or there could be a huge backlash to cash (which wouldn't be such a bad thing anyway).

2) The second thing that I think is needed is some kind of clearinghouse of employment information for employers and employees.  This would probably also need a government element to be effective.   Think of it as a "Monster.com" combined with "Linked-In" with some government validation.  One motivation for this would be to insure that people are minimally allowed to work.  Non-native workers would need to be registered  in order to work, as would minors with a work permit.

Another big motivator could be that it is estimated that that 80%+ of people have false information on their resumes or lie in job interviews.  To have particular parts of a potential employees history (e.g. education, work history, etc.) verified digitally by a certified source would eliminate a lot of fraud from the process and get further into the interview process much faster.  Right now some professional certifications (e.g. Microsoft) can be verified by an employer when an employee gives them a one-use code to their transcript.  A similar model could be used to validate employment-eligibility status as well as education and work history.  The ability to have authorized agents validate the information increases the quality of the information for future use.  Some of my first jobs and special experience were at companies that no longer exist, and for people I have long lost track of.

Right now people who use the unemployment benefits have to use a similar system to track their employment search and can also be used to match people with positions that are posted. The problem will become when registration with this type of system becomes required for particular jobs.

Jobs in personal privacy and data integrity will be ever-growing with the digitization of virtually all information going forward.

How to Win a Darwin Award: Float a Live Surge Protector in a Pool on a Couple of Flip-Flops

This is really creative - with all the people using Google Maps and Google Earth to view directions and satellite images from space, what would it have been like if this was available in Biblical times?  A group called The Glue Society has tried to image it and create the images (through the magic of Photoshop and custom design).

Garden of Eden

Noah's Ark (the "after" picture)

Moses parting the Red Sea (my favorite)

The Crucifixion (powerful)

CR Blog » Blog Archive » The Bible According To Google Earth

Advice from Bill Gates is worth noting - full link / transcript below - here are the highlights.

1. "Working knowledge of productivity software" - I'll buy that, word processing, spreadsheets, presentation, e-mail, etc. (yes I know that's what he sells)
2. "Good background in math and science" - Of course :-)
3. "Communication skills" - Yes
4. "Ability to work well with different types of people" - Important
5. "Innovation requires the ability to collaborate and share ideas" - And creativity (the only surprise for me was he didn't mention creativity)
6. "Passion for ongoing learning" - I like how he puts that one, you are never "done" learning
7. "Curiosity about the world" - Nice.  How do you encourage someone to be curious?

Not an exhaustive list, but sure reads like many of the questions we use for interviewing new team members.

BBC NEWS | Business | Bill Gates: The skills you need to succeed

I've got to try this out soon - if it works it could really be brilliant.  The idea is that you take a number of pictures (3+) of something touristy (i.e. something that people and cars are going past and getting "in the way").  Don't have to be perfectly the same, just close.

Then the program looks at all of the pictures and removes anything that isn't in all the pictures (i.e. people move, cars are gone, etc).

What you are left with is just the main object/building/thing without all the "noise".

Wonder how they do it?

Cool Tool: Tourist Remover

I like to stay generally positive about things here, but sometimes a news item or discussion just gets the better of me.

<rant on>

From today's Grand Rapids Press: Survey: Few believe a good education is necessary

Interesting if you read it critically. Before the poll or the results are even given the writer (unnamed) frames the outcomes to be caused by the struggling economy - implying the results would be different if the economy was doing better. 

Next, Ed Sarpolus is the pollster who is responsible for conducting the poll for EPIC/MRA.  But he not only conducts the survey and compiles the data, but he also presents his opinions on what needs to happen as a result.  It is interesting that he does not recommend that the educational system (that 66%+ of people felt was failing) needs to change, but instead suggests we need to work on changing the "culture" to accept the "importance" of the failing educational system in the state.

Then notice why he probably can't recommend changes and improvements in the educational system, the Kent Intermediate School District sponsored the study.  They also don't recommend to improve the system to meet the needs of those polled.  But rather to "send a common message -- that the economy will improve if people continue their schooling..." in a system that 66%+ of the people see as failing them right now.

More poll results

• Only one in four Michigan parents believe that getting a good education is essential to getting ahead in life.
• Nearly half of parents don't think everyone should have a college education nor do they trust the judgment of teachers and professors.
• Three out of five define the success of their children without reference to education or the ability to support themselves.

Different Poll - same group (EMR/MRA)

• EPIC-MRA poll shows only 34 percent of state residents believe she's [Governor Granholm] doing a good job as governor.

If I were reading these polls and data, I would say that the Governor should head up an effort to improve/redesign the school system to provide the skills and learning necessary for Michigan's children to succeed in today's (and tomorrow's) job market.  Then we will have a workforce ready for the jobs that are desired, companies will want to come to Michigan, and the economy will improve.  Then we'll have an improved school system and economy, and she could get 66%+ of the vote.

We don't just need to get a public relations campaign together to convince the vast majority of Michigan citizens that they just need to "believe" in the current system (which they don't "trust the judgement" of and don't see as being "essential" or effective currently).  This "common message", to stay the course and things will somehow get better on their own, is not a solution.

</rant off>

Sometimes a picture does say 1000 words.  This outlines the problem many American schools had with $1000 laptops - could easily be the same thing with "$100" laptops.

The problem with education isn't a lack of technology, or even a lack of information.  Crossing the "digital divide" means nothing if there isn't educational change to go along with it.

The Joy of Tech comic... laughter is the best tech support.

Locavore .... clearly like carnivore, or omnivore .... something you eat .... a habit more than a diet .... but what's a "Loc"?

It ends up that the Loc means, roughly, "Location" as the word of the year's definition is that "local residents should try to eat only food grown or produced within a 100-mile radius."  The word was coined only a few years ago and is part of a larger trend in environmentally-friendly eating.

I remember hearing about this concept and really thinking it was a good idea, but for an idea to get any "traction" it needs to be talked about - so it needs a name that everyone can recognize.  It is interesting that it only takes a few years and a trendy idea now to get in the Oxford Dictionary, but staying current is probably one of the biggest issues for a traditionally print publication nowadays.

Locavore beat out "mumblecore" (which we got really familiar with at Spout), "tase" (or "taze"), "upcycling" and "previvor" (among others).

So try to use it in a sentence today - hmmm, like "I wonder where locavores get fresh cranberries and vegetables for Thanksgiving in the northern states?"

Oxford Word Of The Year: Locavore : OUPblog

In September, Mac Fowler asked "I wonder how many mouse clicks there are across the world per day?" - a Random thought, sure, but valid.  So many questions are unanswerable, but the impact of the mouse (which was invented in many/most of our lifetimes) can not be minimized.  How to approach the answer scientifically?

So I can not speak for "the world", but I can for myself.  To get some data I downloaded a copy of "MouseCount" by Michael Dean and ran it through the month of October.  I now have data to report, but before you look, try to guess.  I work with computers pretty much all day during the week - how many clicks per day, how many days in October ... I'd make this a contest but I don't have any decent prizes (bag of Cub Scout popcorn?).

So, I personally added 91,728 mouse clicks to the world in October 2007.  More than I expected.  Use your mouse to highlight the number above to see how close you were. 

That's about 500 per hour, just over 8 per minute, as an average.  October was a very typical month for me, so I consider this experiment concluded.  One more of life's mysteries solved.

There is no imminent purchase decision, but I did start thinking about this over the last month.  My car is a 2000, and will cross 100,000 miles soon, but it is more the $90/gallon and alternative energy thing that is taking up "brainwidth" lately.  In 2008/9 I should be able to get a decent electric/alternative energy car in without having to make it myself.

I remember when I was in grade school in the "Energy Crunch" of the early 70s that everyone was talking about solar/electric cars, and alternative/renewable energy.  Predictions were made that in 25 years (by 2000) we the family car would not run on gasoline and power plants would not run on coal (and robots would clean our houses (Roomba?) and farm our fields).  It seems like in the 80s and 90s we really dropped the ball after they found a number of huge oil deposits around the world and people started focusing more on the economy and national defense.  Google/Wikipedia tells me there is an interesting documentary I may need to get from the library.

But the social aspect isn't really my point - I will be very disappointed if my next car isn't an electric or alternative energy vehicle.  I am told I am the ideal candidate for an energy-efficient car.  I have a short commute, can park in a garage, don't have to get above 50mph or travel more than 25-40 miles per day (seems to be a "sweet spot").  We have the "family van" for longer trips and carrying more people and cargo.  So I should be in great shape for a cool efficient car.

But, I am "underwhelmed" by the current offerings and don't see any great ideas on the horizon.  The Toyota Prius seems to be the "postercar" for this effort, but I really don't like it (not sure why) and don't have $100k for a Tesla (plus all the 2008 models are sold out).  According to a recent Wall Street Journal article it looks like 2011/2012 may be target years for the BigCos to come out with new models (don't know if I can make it that long).  

Anyway, something interesting to watch out for - anyone else heard anything (suggestions?)?

OK, this post will be a little “heady” for a Saturday morning but I want to reference this topic for some other work I am going to do this fall. I am planning to do some non-trivial work to get some resources and links online to help kids get into doing projects and learning about things like physics, space science, and robotics/electronics – things if you know me, you know I’ve been into for a long time. The problem with the way kids learn about these topics nowadays is that it is mostly abstract, in theories, reading, or just “on paper.” To really learn more than trivia and facts about these topics you really need to “do” things with the science, not just learn things “about” them.

There are several articles or models from people that really affect the way I am going to approach things, and have impacted my thinking about the approach to learning things. I’ll hit each of them separately and then pull them all together later as kind of an approach for what I am going to try. None of these articles or their ideas should really come as a surprise to anyone – they make sense when you read them. But the authors do a great job of describing things in a depth and detail that I never could.

The first article and model is the Dreyfus Model – which is based originally on a report by Hubert Dreyfus and Stuart Dreyfus in the early 80s called “A Five-Stage Model of the Mental Activities Involved in Directed Skill Acquisition.” I’ll try to link to the study itself which is in a doc=GetTRDoc.pdf" target="_blank">PDF file (scanned in mirror 783k) – don’t read it yet, just follow along here for a minute.

This study was prepared initially for the Air Force Office of Scientific Research for the training of pilots, but its model and purpose has been used effectively for training everyone from pilots, to nurses, to chess players, foreign language learners, and even computer programmers (Google “Dreyfus Model” http://www.google.com/search?q=dreyfus+model and will see lots of different results of people using it (and some people arguing against it)). I like it, so I am going to use it.

To keep this to as few words as possible, Dreyfus identifies five to seven stages of learning a new skill or domain:

I don’t know about you but I find that many people use terms like “Competent” and “Expert” in describing their skills but really have no objective model for putting them in one category or another. Some people move themselves from not knowing anything about a particular skill up to “Competent” just by reading a book about the topic. Others call themselves an “Expert” after completing one project using a particular skill or technology. I am reminded of an episode of “Monk” where the detective Adrian Monk is going on a boat and someone asks him if he can swim. He says he knows how to swim, and even produces a card from his wallet certifying him as a swimmer (from a correspondence course), but also admits he has never actually been in the water to try out his skills but thinks he’ll do fine. Some people are that way with technology and other domains where they have studied it in books and on the Internet but have never really “done” real-world things to use what they have learned. You learn by doing things, you don’t (can’t) really learn before you do something.

What this model does is two important things: (1) helps better define what these stages of learning mean and (2) explains a workable model for moving people from one stage to the next.

Briefly, the stages:

Novice

A novice is all about following rules – specific rules, without context or modification. You don’t need to “think” you just need to “do”. A rule is absolute, and must never be violated. The main thing to do here is to get experience following directions and doing the new skill. You can follow the instructions on a box of cake mix and hopefully produce a decent cake. All you are responsible for is following directions.

“To improve, the novice needs monitoring, either by self-observation or instructional feedback, so as to bring his behavior more and more completely into conformity with the rule.”

Advanced Beginner

Still rules based, but rules start to have situational conditions. In one situation you use one rule, in other situations you use another. The advanced beginner needs to be able to identify the limited need to selectively apply different rules. So if you want a chocolate cake, follow the chocolate rule(s), if you want a vanilla cake, follow the other rule(s). If you are over 5,000ft of altitude you will need to alter the amount of some ingredients. This is still a recipe, but has a few decision points. Again, follow the different “branches” of instructions and you should be fine. It is easy to see how this could collapse into a large Novice category, but it is a step before the much larger step to Competence.

Competent

You realize that your skill or domain is more complex than a series of rules and branches. You start to see patterns and principles (or aspects) rather than a discrete set of rules – rules become “rules of thumb”. You are lead more by your experience and active decision-making than by strictly following rules. What is developed now are guidelines that help direct competent individuals at a higher level. You now are accountable for your decisions as you are not following the strict rules and context of the previous stages. You’ve made a lot of cakes and have a number of recipes. When asked to make a cake of a different type you pull from experience the best way to put a new cake together. If the new cake doesn’t work out, you are responsible. This is the critical tipping point for most people when learning a new skill – and why most people never really become “competent” in most things they learn. Here you either need to decide to just “follow the rules” or spend the time to get fully involved with and take responsibility.

“Competence comes only after considerable experience actually coping with real situations …”

Proficient

Proficiency is developed by exposure to a “wide variety of typical whole situations.”

Expert

At this point you are not solving problems or making conscious decisions about things, you just “do” and it works. “Optimal performance becomes second nature.” People may ask you why you decided to do things “that way” and you may not know how to explain to them the 10 steps necessary to get from “A” to “B” because to you it was really just one step. Forcing an expert to detail the steps necessary before proceeding will often cause them to fail or second-guess. Here you think of grandma getting up at 6:00am and making biscuits from scratch for many, many years. She doesn’t measure, time, or probably even think about baking – she just does it, and it works. Very few people will attain this level in a particular skill or domain. Some estimates say 10-15 years in a particular area is required.

An Expert has experience that “is so vast that normally each specific situation immediately dictates an intuitively appropriate action.”

Master

Mastery is mostly about style. A Master of something is really just an “Expert on a roll.” Sometimes you may have witnessed someone or spent time with someone who is so good at something, and gets so caught up in doing it, that you can’t help but feel that you are watching a genius at work. I’d also say a Master is an Expert who can look back and put themselves in a Novice’s shoes and create the rules, and do the monitoring/mentoring necessary to help them move forward. If you have met a Master you remember them – by name – they are rare and you would do well to spend as much time with them as possible. An Expert basketball player could be excellent at execution and without formal thought just picture the ball going through the hoop (and it does). But Michael Jordan could do it with such style, grace and physics-defying ease that you just had to stop everything and watch him when he was “in the groove.”

A Master “is capable of experiencing moments of intense absorption in his work, during which his performance transcends even its usual high level.”

The Point

If you’ve read this far, thanks, and I’ll get to the point (1,000+ words later) – I believe that too many people today are learning just enough to be considered an “Advanced Beginner” in the vast majority of topics. Painfully this is increasingly true in science, math and technology. If you know enough to “pass the test” then that is all you need to know. The No Child Left Behind law was designed to keep people accountable for learning. But instead of having students be able to become Competent or even Proficient in a handful of skills, we have instead created a system where we have students stuck at “Advanced Beginner” in many more subjects – and perhaps unable to move forward. We are teaching kids that it is enough to know “about” things, but not actually “do” things.

So what can we do about it? We need to catalog and create a list of resources that will help kids get from Novice to Competent in science, math, and technology - things that will get them active in doing projects and making the connections necessary to move ahead. A lofty goal, but attainable. Many people are seeing similar voids and doing things about it. Linking and teaming with them will be key in our success.

More on this to come …..

Bruce

p.s. I need a good label for "Level 0" - before Novice - before you've ever really started learning about a particular topic.  "Ignorant" is cold, as is "Empty" - "Unaware" sounds judgmental.  If you haven't heard of Newton's Laws of Motion it most likely isn't your fault, but you aren't quite a "Novice" yet in its study.  Something positive like "ready" or "waiting"  or "willing" - ideas are welcome.